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Help! Why race when behind?

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 23 July 2013, at 12:24 a.m.

In Response To: Help! Why race when behind? (Matt Cohn-Geier)

White can slowly improve his position to close in on an efficient cube over several rolls with a race lead and priming advantage.

Define *efficient cube*. If you look at the few times it happened in my trials the cubes are anything but efficient I think.

Many of Blue's wins will come from a sudden turnaround and cube overkill.

Disagree since as I said in my original post you should usually be running in the upcoming turns. You may scoot up a little to see daylight and hop out. The opponent won't attack you loosely because he's already up enough in the race to not merit taking the risk. Your cubes are still a lot more likely to come from catching up in the race.

I played this game out 16x by misplaying the 62 that Bill posted 13/5. I then played correctly after that. 16 games may be a drop of nothingness in a bucket in the grand scheme of trials but I felt the games played out more or less as I expected them to and I'm not going to devote any more time to playing out this position. FWIW, here are the 16 cubes in those games, who was doing the cubing, and the equity of the doubler at the time of the cube according to XGR+ rounded.

  • XGID=----CBC-B---cBdB-b-bbb-A--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 (opp. cube, .810)
  • XGID=a---BAC-C--AcBcBAb-db-----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 (my cube, .880)
  • XGID=----BBBBA--AdBbB-b-dc-A---:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 (opp. cube, .760)
  • XGID=----BBC-B--AdBbB-c-cc-A---:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 (opp. cube, .760
  • XGID=--AAABA-------------bb----:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 (opp. cube, race bleh)
  • XGID=---ACCG--A----a----ebcbaa-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 (opp. cube, race .930)
  • XGID=----CBCAB-A-d--C-a-db-bb--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 (opp. cube, race .930)
  • XGID=----BCBBA---cBbB-c-dc--A--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 (opp. cube, .870)
  • XGID=---ACCE------------bccbc--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 (opp. cube, race 1.050)
  • XGID=---ABAC-B--AcBdB-b-bbbA---:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 (opp. cube, .870)
  • XGID=----CCD---A-AAbBda-bbaba--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 (opp. cube, race bleh, 1.20)
  • XGID=----BCD-AA-AA-dB-acdaa-a--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 (opp. cube, race, .730)
  • XGID=---ABBBABA-Ae--B-b-dbb-A--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 (opp. cube, .720)
  • XGID=----BBC-C---ABbB-bddc-----:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 (opp. cube, race, bleh)
  • XGID=b-BABBB---AAc-B--c-bcAb-A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 (my cube, bleh)
  • XGID=--aABCB-BA--cBbB--acc--b--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 (my cube, 1.080)

Where you see a "bleh" as you can tell from the position a huge swing happened on the last sequence. All of them but one was an unanswered big double in a position that was otherwise a reasonable race.

Stick

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