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Rollout Result Posted

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Friday, 24 January 2014, at 11:42 a.m.

In Response To: Money Game Cube Action (Paul Weaver)

What is the cube action if Blue fans after doubling? Scroll down to see. Scroll down still more to see the position that actually came up in a game. I modified this one to create the first position because I wanted to show a double/beaver.





White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 79
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 82
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=-BBCF-a-----a---a-AabbcacA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 48.15% (G:21.92% B:1.00%) 48.55% (G:23.89% B:1.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 51.85% (G:12.87% B:0.24%) 51.45% (G:13.29% B:0.32%)
Cubeless Equities +0.061 +0.168
Cubeful Equities
No double:-0.049 (-0.008)±0.002 (-0.051..-0.047)
Double/Beaver:-0.041±0.008 (-0.049..-0.032)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+1.041)
Best Cube action: Double / Beaver
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:96.6%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 41 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is peever

score: 0
pip: 82
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 79
score: 0

Blue is NevzatDogan
XGID=-BBCF-a-----a---a-AabbcacA:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 86.32% (G:25.23% B:0.59%) 86.67% (G:24.85% B:0.56%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 13.68% (G:1.79% B:0.05%) 13.33% (G:1.82% B:0.04%)
Cubeless Equities +0.966 +1.938
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+1.061±0.005 (+1.056..+1.067)
Redouble/Take:+1.846 (+0.785)±0.010 (+1.836..+1.855)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (-0.061)
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 7.2%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 34.0 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 79
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 74
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=-DCCC-a-----a---a-AabbcacA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 49.00% (G:23.50% B:0.75%) 49.12% (G:24.53% B:0.84%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 51.00% (G:12.98% B:0.27%) 50.88% (G:13.25% B:0.32%)
Cubeless Equities +0.090 +0.201
Cubeful Equities
No double:-0.040 (-0.049)±0.003 (-0.043..-0.037)
Double/Take:+0.009±0.008 (+0.000..+0.017)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.991)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Beaver Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 16 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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