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Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Tuesday, 8 April 2014, at 2:37 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action ATS (John O'Hagan)

I redoubled here as the weaker player vs. XGR+. A no skill position that's almost a recube against an even player is almost always a cube when you're overmatched.

Vs. an even player it's not quite good enough though. The redoubling window is from ~86% to 92% and experience has shown that the leader needs to be real close to the top end of the window or have a ton of big market losers in order to redouble.

Here you have 4 shot-leaving numbers and 17 clearing. The other 15 are neutral numbers (except for 33 which loses the 6-point). You're probably a little more likely to leave a shot on these 15 so I'd guess you blot around 8/36. This gets hit a third of the time for 2 2/3 losses.

Plus Black figures to win ~5% of the remaining 33 1/3 games from either hitting on the 6-point or winning the race which is another 1.65 games. That's over 4/36 which is over 11% and isn't very close to the top of your doubling window.

You do have a lot of market losers though. Anything that clears the 8 or leaves a shot and is missed mostly gives Black a clear pass. I guess you need a few more to recube here.

is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 97
13 point match
pip: 60
score: 7

is Player 1
XGID=-BDBAbD-B---------bbbbcb--:2:1:1:00:7:3:0:13:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 88.00% (G:1.13% B:0.01%) 88.04% (G:4.31% B:0.01%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 12.00% (G:0.71% B:0.02%) 11.96% (G:0.38% B:0.01%)
Cubeless Equities +0.754 +0.908
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.824±0.002 (+0.823..+0.826)
Redouble/Take:+0.798 (-0.026)±0.003 (+0.795..+0.801)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.176)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11.5%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 41 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

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