Neil and Ray etc
Posted By: Coolrey In Response To: Neil and Ray etc (Seth)
Date: Tuesday, 8 April 2014, at 7:26 p.m.
In Response To: Neil and Ray etc (Seth)
This is just fine Seth, however, you are merely choosing which way you would prefer to lose 7 to 10 percent of the time. Not doubling is guaranteed insurance against losing on a 16 cube, but it does not guarantee you won't lose. You may win this game and lose the next 9 in a row, or whatever.
I choose to lose only 5% of the time from there by taking advantage of the estimated 30% of the Open level players that would either:
A. Not be able to figure out the right cube action and pass.
B. Be able to figure it out, but still not be able to take a cube with under 10% game winning equity.
C. Know its a take but read enough here to surmise that I am weak and should not be given a chance to end the match on a low skill situation.
D. Figure it all out right and take confidently, never get a shot, and lose.
E. Figure it all out right and take confidently, get a shot, miss it, and lose.
Please understand I am not trying to be funny. I am doing the right thing. XG tells you it is the right thing, even though it may not be the optimal strategy.
Optimal strategy entails perfect play on both sides. It tells you what is "right". How important is being right to you? Would you rather just win more instead?
Perfect play on both sides happens only in a fantasy world, or when bot plays bot. So, the best play... As XG points out... is to redouble whenever X% of all players will pass.
If you can predict those that won't pass, then you can even do better. Don't double Neil, or Stick or John O'Hagan. Or Malcolm Davis or Ed O'Laughlin.
However, I would double you and see what happens then. Are you so confident that you would TAKE this cube you seem to feel is a bad idea to give? I am not.
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