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Neil and Ray etc

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Monday, 7 April 2014, at 5:19 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action ATS (Coolrey)

Ray's made a career out of getting players to drop EASY takes like this! This is not a criticism but a complement :). For me, things are different and I am more likely to get a bad take (AtS) from weaker opps after clearing here (esp. if I clear with a 2 which leaves me a bad 55 and 66.

For me it tends to go like this after I clear and cube a weaker opp. "Hmm..I think this is a pass...no I am sure it is a pass, but I can't play vs Neil down 11-3 to 13 so I'll take and pray." Even if said weaker opp knows his TP is 7.7% if we are even strength, he doesn't care and still can take after I clear. Thus I can get some takes from weaker players after I clear.

For Ray, as I've observed countless times over the years, things are different. The weaker opp shrugs his shoulders, can't figure it out, and while he may suspect that he has a take he just can't bear the thought of the match ending this game and somehow thinks that he can have a fair chance to come back from Ray down 11-3, perhaps unaware of how much Ray's PR and game have improved over the past 12-18 months. Thus the random weaker opp Ray faces has a good chance to blunder and pass right here which is really bad since based on skill factor their MWC after passing might be about 6% vs Ray.

Why is this an easy take? Well there's tons of extra chances if there's no hit next roll. 17 rolls fail to clear (almost half the time) leaving at least (often more) 4 bad rolls next turn. Then if you don't clear on your 3rd roll, you may be forced to abandon the 6 pt and have all sorts of problems. Once you do clear the 8 pt you still get hit a few percent of the time as you clear the 6 pt. There's also a sight chance (maybe a bit over 1% (I think) to lose this as a race). All of these extra chances will add to lots more than 7.7% when combined with 48/1296 hits immediately.

I doubt that this is a technically correct double playing an equal player who can figure out that the take is trivial.

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