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Denmark v. The World - All Match Files--what about luck?

Posted By: phil simborg
Date: Tuesday, 22 April 2014, at 3:24 p.m.

In Response To: Denmark v. The World - All Match Files (Stick)

With virtually all the PR's being low and usually no great differences, is it fair to say that the player or team with the higher luck factor won almost every time?

If that is true, and it shouldn't be too hard to find out, then it means that the best players are wasting a lot of time competing against each other, and maybe the game, at that level, needs to be Nackgammon or something that is more coplex in order to reduce the affect of luck.

Of course that is not true for "normal" competition where we don't always have such low PR players competing against each other all the time, but it seems to be more and more obvious, at least to me, that at the highest levels of the game luck is the major determinant of the winner.

I would not have enjoyed playing at 1.75, as David Wells did, and losing to a player who had twice the PR but a +8 luck factor.

Speed gammon was one way to challenge and change the skills, but I think more variations are complications are in order. We have never had so many players playing so closely to the same level and playing so much the same way, and it's obviously because of the bots.

The game has changed, and maybe we should embrace and address that change instead of ignoring it.

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