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Denmark v. The World - All Match Files--what about luck?

Posted By: trichard
Date: Wednesday, 23 April 2014, at 6:15 p.m.

In Response To: Denmark v. The World - All Match Files--what about luck? (Peter)

"In my opinion the skillfulled always prevail. In the long run." The operative phrase here is "in the long run." Of course. In the very, very long run,the luck will be virtually identical (if you flip a coin a million times, the difference in results will be a tiny fraction of one percent. The relevant question here is how important luck is in the shorter term such as an eleven point match.

Isn't the answer as simple as comparing what XG calls "equity" in a match, which I gather is the sum of all the errors made, with what XG considers to be the total accumulated luck of each player. Of course, this analysis would be dependent on how XG evaluates and sums up what it considers to be each player's "luck" and "equity" in the match.

Or, am I missing something?

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