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last roll situation

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Sunday, 6 July 2014, at 2:21 p.m.

In Response To: last roll situation (scotty)

You analysis makes sense but instead of doing your calculation of the increase in MWC it is probably easier to look at the 25% possible gain and 20% possible loss to give a ratio or a percentage and compare to actual win ratio or percentage. 25 to 20 is same as 5 to 4 or conveniently here 20 to 16.

It would be an optional double with 16 winning numbers.

You should also know that Kit's table is a bit outdated. For example 2a 1a C is believed to be about 32.3% instead of 30%.

Instead of doing all these calculations over and over OTB it may be useful to memorize these for a small match, or at least get an intuitive idea of where they are elevated or diminished.

In general if there are no gammons and cube is still on 1 many players way overdo the cube more aggressively when behind and less when ahead idea. Also note that getting to 0 or 1 away is really good. It may surprise you to learn that in a race with leader at 85 pips at 2a 5a the 2a player can cash at 77% but the 5a player should not even double until at 77% and cashes at about 83%

Messages In This Thread

• last roll situation
  scotty -- Sunday, 6 July 2014, at 1:01 p.m.
  • last roll situation
    Bob Koca -- Sunday, 6 July 2014, at 2:21 p.m.
    • last roll situation
      roadkillbooks -- Monday, 7 July 2014, at 4:37 a.m.
      • last roll situation
        scotty -- Monday, 7 July 2014, at 5:31 a.m.
        • last roll situation
          Bob Koca -- Monday, 7 July 2014, at 6:14 a.m.
          • last roll situation
            scotty -- Monday, 7 July 2014, at 9:26 a.m.
            • last roll situation
              Bob Koca -- Monday, 7 July 2014, at 4:12 p.m.
              • last roll situation
                scotty -- Monday, 7 July 2014, at 4:42 p.m.
                • last roll situation
                  scotty -- Tuesday, 8 July 2014, at 3:23 a.m.
                  • last roll situation
                    Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 8 July 2014, at 2:21 p.m.
                • oops, i miscounted the rolls.
                  scotty -- Tuesday, 8 July 2014, at 4:31 a.m.
  • last roll situation
    neilkaz -- Monday, 7 July 2014, at 4:41 p.m.
    • last roll situation
      scotty -- Monday, 7 July 2014, at 5:36 p.m.
  • common sense explanation
    David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 8 July 2014, at 4:53 a.m.
  • now try this one
    Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 8 July 2014, at 2:36 p.m.
    • hope i have the solution
      scotty -- Wednesday, 9 July 2014, at 2:28 a.m.
      • hope i have the solution
        Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 9 July 2014, at 3:34 a.m.
    • now try this one
      scotty -- Wednesday, 9 July 2014, at 4:50 a.m.
      • now try this one
        Sam Pottle -- Tuesday, 15 July 2014, at 2:11 a.m.