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last roll situation

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Monday, 7 July 2014, at 4:12 p.m.

In Response To: last roll situation (scotty)

You got a lot of things right.

Your estimate of win chance if game is played out is close except you ignored possibility of blue missing, then white missing, then blue missing again. You estimated blue wins about 47% but it is actually only 44%.

You are right that if blue does not cube and then misses that white will have a cube and blue will drop. You already had it as a drop so didn't make you go wrong on the take decision but be careful about your furthermore idea. Unless it was 11, 21, or 31 white would be dropping blue's recube and those 4 bad rolls do give a double take for blue. This doe mean though that the take might be closer than you think.

So you overestimated blue's win chance a little bit and said no double. Actually though it is almost a .05 error to not cube. It seems paradoxical perhaps. What is wrong?

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