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common sense explanation

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Tuesday, 8 July 2014, at 4:53 a.m.

In Response To: last roll situation (scotty)

I covered this score on the last roll in my lecture in Peoria last year. 2-away has the following choices:

Retain the cube and play the next game at either 2-away, 2-away or Crawford 3-away. Neither of these scores offers any significant leverage to either player.

Or - he can double and either win the match or play the next game trailing 2-away Crawford (gammon go). Playing at gammon go offers considerable leverage.

The second set of possible outcomes is more desirable than the first set because of the leverage at gammon go. So, 2-away doubles on the last roll with less than 50% because of the advantages of playing at gammon go after losing the game. If you look at the details of the calculation, you will see that this is indeed the reason for the low doubling point.

3-away does the opposite for the same reasons with the logic reversed.

I have found that all cube action points can be understood with this kind of thinking. Some are much more complicated than this simple case of course. Those that are interested should try to explain the low take point for the match leader at 2-away 5-away (assuming no gammons).

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