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Rollout

Posted By: Ian Dunstan
Date: Wednesday, 13 August 2014, at 6:35 a.m.

In Response To: 1&3 Backgame #2 (Ian Dunstan)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 136
Unlimited Game
pip: 232
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--A-B-B---dB---cBcbbC-C-:1:1:1:12:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 12

1.Rollout124/23 6/4eq: -0.146
Player:
Opponent:		48.62% (G:4.45% B:0.19%)
51.38% (G:31.83% B:7.14%)		Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.164...-0.128) - [61.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 42 minutes
2.Rollout16/5 6/4eq: -0.152 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		48.34% (G:4.23% B:0.19%)
51.66% (G:31.80% B:7.08%)		Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.169...-0.135) - [27.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes
3.Rollout124/23 8/6eq: -0.161 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:		48.17% (G:4.35% B:0.19%)
51.83% (G:32.11% B:7.02%)		Conf.: ± 0.024 (-0.185...-0.137) - [10.7%]
Duration: 2 hours 00 minute
4.Rollout113/10eq: -0.175 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:		48.08% (G:3.70% B:0.16%)
51.92% (G:32.54% B:7.91%)		Conf.: ± 0.021 (-0.196...-0.154) - [0.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes
5.Rollout124/23 13/11eq: -0.180 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:		48.13% (G:3.80% B:0.20%)
51.87% (G:33.14% B:8.08%)		Conf.: ± 0.024 (-0.205...-0.156) - [0.5%]
Duration: 2 hours 15 minutes
6.Rollout124/22 8/7eq: -0.189 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:		47.96% (G:3.75% B:0.19%)
52.04% (G:33.62% B:7.64%)		Conf.: ± 0.021 (-0.210...-0.168) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
7.Rollout113/11 8/7eq: -0.271 (-0.126)
Player:
Opponent:		46.63% (G:3.17% B:0.18%)
53.37% (G:35.93% B:10.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.027 (-0.298...-0.244) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 52 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 40546660
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Search interval: Huge

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

To note is that both gnubg and XG's play of 6/5 6/4 rolls out well. However, so do some plays that either XG gnubg (or both) did not like at all, and some of us did like them.

The gnubg rollout below is just two options. The one the bots like best and the move I played. Something else might be better than these two, but the rollout is there for a quick comparison.

gnubg136

3O '3O2X2X3X2O3X ' ' '2O

1X ' '1O '2O '2O ' ' '4X
Ian Dunstan232
Position ID: 2M7BAyDIDAbDOQ Match ID: UQkFAAAAAAAA

• Ian Dunstan moves 24/23 13/11

# Ply Move Equity
• 1 R 24/23 13/11 -0.138
0.4850.0410.002-0.5150.3300.070 -0.388 -0.138
0.0030.0010.000-0.0030.0030.002 0.010 0.013
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 718067971 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2 R 6/5 6/4 -0.140 ( -0.001)
0.4830.0400.002-0.5170.3200.063 -0.376 -0.140
0.0020.0010.000-0.0020.0020.001 0.007 0.009
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 718067971 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3 2 8/7 8/6 -0.414 ( -0.275)
0.432 0.047 0.001 - 0.568 0.384 0.089
4 2 24/23 8/6 -0.421 ( -0.283)
0.429 0.052 0.001 - 0.571 0.389 0.090
5 2 24/23 6/4 -0.431 ( -0.293)
0.426 0.051 0.001 - 0.574 0.393 0.087

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