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1&3 Backgame #2 --- 4-ply rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 14 August 2014, at 1:09 a.m.

In Response To: 1&3 Backgame #2 --- 4-ply rollout (Petter Bengtsson)

The only conclusion I'd draw is that XG doesn't understand the position. When the rollout results show signs of internal inconsistency, I don't trust them.

I could imagine being convinced that breaking the midpoint is a bad idea, but it would take more than just one or two rollouts. For a start, I'd want to understand better what kind of misplays XG is making, so that I can get some feeling for what kinds of adjustments we need when interpreting them. Then I would want to see a plausible theory for why breaking the midpoint is bad. And then I would like to see that theory tested and supported by further data, that can plausibly be argued to not suffer irreparably from the XG misplays.

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