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Rollout and comment

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 28 August 2014, at 9:34 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout and comment (Ian Dunstan)

I'd still be inclined to clear from the rear if this position came up, just because there are so many other similar positions where clearing from the rear is the right idea.

However, if we're interested in exceptions, below is an interesting position pair that I discovered a little while ago. See if you can come up with an explanation for the rollout results.


Position 1





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 127
Unlimited Game
pip: 61
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=abBDCCC-----------bbbbbb--:1:-1:1:26:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 26

1.Rollout16/Off 5/3eq: +0.927
Player:
Opponent:
78.48% (G:38.94% B:4.41%)
21.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.005 (+0.922...+0.932) - [100.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 43 seconds
2.Rollout16/Off 4/2eq: +0.905 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
77.01% (G:40.63% B:4.62%)
22.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.004 (+0.902...+0.909) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 44 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


Position 2





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 114
Unlimited Game
pip: 61
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bBDCCC------a----bbbbbb--:1:-1:1:26:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 26

1.Rollout16/Off 4/2eq: +0.806
Player:
Opponent:
84.42% (G:17.07% B:0.67%)
15.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.004 (+0.802...+0.810) - [99.9%]
Duration: 18 minutes 45 seconds
2.Rollout16/Off 5/3eq: +0.797 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
84.93% (G:14.52% B:0.49%)
15.07% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.004 (+0.793...+0.801) - [0.1%]
Duration: 16 minutes 10 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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