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Who gets this right over the board
Posted By: Igor
Date: Wednesday, 5 November 2014, at 2:36 p.m.
In Response To: Who gets this right over the board (Phil Simborg)
Blue takes both checkers off on the next roll 14 out of 36 times. If blue misses, white has 26 rolls to take both checkers off and win. If white misses with an ace (10 out of 36), then blue is almost guaranteed to win barring an unlikely sequence of two very small rolls in a row. So, accounting for such an unlikely sequence I'd assume white wins 27/36 times on 22 blue misses, or 3/4 of 22/36. This is about 16/36 plus change or roughly 45% (18/36 is 50% and each 1/36 is about 2.8%) of the time.
Should blue double with 55% winning chance? The doubling window for the trailer AtS is 7083%, but this doesn't necessarily apply to the almost last roll positions. I don't have the tools to figure out how much one needs to double in a last roll position at any given score, so I'd guess it's not a double at this score since being at 42 is not that much worse than being at 32 due to respective gammon values.

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