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Who gets this right over the board

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Wednesday, 5 November 2014, at 8:21 p.m.

In Response To: Who gets this right over the board (Phil Simborg)

I wouldn't cube this for money. When blue misses, white can recube and since blue is then ~30% to win he has to eat that four cube. Unappetizing.

Here, white can't recube, so it's a lot like a last-roll position. 14 out of 36 bear off. The other 22 times, white fails to clear about a third of the time, so say seven of those are winners. That gives blue roughly 21/36 to win, and since it's basically last roll ship it.

The take seems obvious.

D/T

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