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BGonline.org Forums
Who gets this right over the board
Posted By: Dmitriy Obukhov In Response To: Who gets this right over the board (Phil Simborg)
Date: Wednesday, 5 November 2014, at 8:46 p.m.
Using 4a2a = 1/3 mwc. 5a1C = 0.15 mwc, and 32 a =0.4 mwc:
If you don't dbl and miss, you have to pass. So, if you don't dbl mwc =(1/3)*14/36+0.15*22/36 = (4.2+3.3)/36 = 7.5/36
If you dbl mwc (ignoring a small chance of missing twice) = 0.4*14/36 + (220/1296)*0.4 = 5.6/36 + 88/1296 = (5.6 + 2.4)/36 =8/36, which is greater than mwc after NDBL. So, dbl is right.
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