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Who gets this right over the board

Posted By: Rick Janowski
Date: Thursday, 6 November 2014, at 9:16 a.m.

In Response To: Who gets this right over the board (Phil Simborg)

The change in effective winning probability between no double (14/36 approx) and double-take (20/36 approx) means that a simple risk reward calculation cannot be applied. However, an equation can be formulated which deals with these 2 away scores where a double by the match trailer makes the game cubeless: The minimum probability for a double,

DP = (MEL1-MEL2) / ((MEW2 – k*MEW1) + (k*MEL1 – MEL2)

Where p = cubeless winning probability = 20/36 = 0.56

k = ratio of effective winning probabilities comparing ND to DT = 14/20 = 0.70

MEL1 = match equity for losing 1 point = 0.16

MEL2 = match equity for losing 2 points = 0.00

MEW1 = match equity for winning 1 point = 0.33

MEW2 = match equity for winning 2 points = 0.40

Note that if k=1, the equation becomes identical to the risk-reward equation.

Plugging the numbers into the equation gives DP = 0.57 approx a tad higher than the actual winning chances so no double, but a marginal decision.

Over the board, I would have guessed and got it right, but for the wrong reasons.

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