
BGonline.org Forums
Who gets this right over the board
Posted By: Rick Janowski
Date: Thursday, 6 November 2014, at 9:16 a.m.
In Response To: Who gets this right over the board (Phil Simborg)
The change in effective winning probability between no double (14/36 approx) and doubletake (20/36 approx) means that a simple risk reward calculation cannot be applied. However, an equation can be formulated which deals with these 2 away scores where a double by the match trailer makes the game cubeless: The minimum probability for a double,
DP = (MEL1MEL2) / ((MEW2 – k*MEW1) + (k*MEL1 – MEL2)
Where p = cubeless winning probability = 20/36 = 0.56
k = ratio of effective winning probabilities comparing ND to DT = 14/20 = 0.70
MEL1 = match equity for losing 1 point = 0.16
MEL2 = match equity for losing 2 points = 0.00
MEW1 = match equity for winning 1 point = 0.33
MEW2 = match equity for winning 2 points = 0.40
Note that if k=1, the equation becomes identical to the riskreward equation.
Plugging the numbers into the equation gives DP = 0.57 approx a tad higher than the actual winning chances so no double, but a marginal decision.
Over the board, I would have guessed and got it right, but for the wrong reasons.

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