BGonline.org Forums

Results-Based PR

Posted By: Maik Stiebler
Date: Monday, 2 February 2015, at 8:55 a.m.

In Response To: Results-Based PR (Christian Plenz)

I think this converges with luck% ...

Technically, it doesn't, unless your evaluations are actually perfect. As a thought experiment, stage a bot match where Bot A is the imperfect bot that also does the later analysis, and Bot B is a future generation bot which is stronger than Bot A - as we know, Bot A is not perfect, so it is not unreasonable to assume that such a bot exists or will exist.

Obviously Bot A plays perfect according to analysis, and Bot B does not, so by concventional mwc analysis we will converge to the wrong result that A is favorite. That won't happen with VR, which is unbiased by construction.

If that difference matters in practice is another story... ok, currently in the news is the Mochy game where he played a super backgame with a grotesque ER>30 (according to gnubg), apparently (see Daniel Murphy's comments, I haven't had time yet to look at the thing myself) to a considerable extent due to the bot misunderstanding what was happening. If that's true, a luck based analysis would probably have worked much better for that game - I mean probably it wouldn't have produced useful information either, but it wouldn't have punished Mochy so hard.

Messages In This Thread

• VRR - Challenge
  Rick Janowski -- Friday, 30 January 2015, at 7:40 a.m.
  • VRR - Challenge
    Bob Koca -- Friday, 30 January 2015, at 9:12 a.m.
    • VRR - Challenge
      Rick Janowski -- Friday, 30 January 2015, at 9:50 a.m.
      • VRR - Challenge
        Martin -- Friday, 30 January 2015, at 6:33 p.m.
        • VRR - Challenge
          Rick Janowski -- Friday, 30 January 2015, at 7:30 p.m.
      • VRR - Challenge
        Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 30 January 2015, at 8:54 p.m.
        • VRR - Challenge
          Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 31 January 2015, at 12:04 a.m.
          • VRR - Challenge
            Maik Stiebler -- Saturday, 31 January 2015, at 7:25 a.m.
            • VRR - Challenge
              Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 31 January 2015, at 9:42 a.m.
    • VRR - Challenge
      Timothy Chow -- Friday, 30 January 2015, at 6:43 p.m.
    • VRR - Challenge
      Jason Lee -- Friday, 30 January 2015, at 7:23 p.m.
    • VRR - Challenge
      Rick Janowski -- Friday, 30 January 2015, at 11:28 p.m.
      • VRR - Challenge
        Maik Stiebler -- Saturday, 31 January 2015, at 8:10 a.m.
        • VRR - Challenge
          Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 31 January 2015, at 9:40 a.m.
          • VRR - Challenge
            Maik Stiebler -- Saturday, 31 January 2015, at 1:28 p.m.
            • VRR - Challenge
              Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 31 January 2015, at 3:08 p.m.
          • VRR - Challenge
            Bob Koca -- Saturday, 31 January 2015, at 3:56 p.m.
            • VRR - Challenge
              Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 31 January 2015, at 4:35 p.m.
          • VRR - Challenge
            Jason Lee -- Saturday, 31 January 2015, at 4:56 p.m.
            • VRR - Challenge
              Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 31 January 2015, at 6:51 p.m.
  • Results-Based PR
    Rick Janowski -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 4:30 a.m.
    • Results-Based PR
      Bob Koca -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 5:57 a.m.
      • Results-Based PR
        Rick Janowski -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 6:31 a.m.
      • Results-Based PR
        Dmitriy Obukhov -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 6:40 a.m.
      • Results-Based PR
        Maik Stiebler -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 7:54 a.m.
        • Results-Based PR
          Maik Stiebler -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 8:39 a.m.
          • Results-Based PR
            Rick Janowski -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 9:11 a.m.
            • Results-Based PR
              Maik Stiebler -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 9:41 a.m.
              • Results-Based PR
                Rick Janowski -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 10:48 a.m.
      • Results-Based PR
        Maik Stiebler -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 4:35 p.m.
      • Results-Based PR
        Rick Janowski -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 6:15 p.m.
        • Results-Based PR
          Bob Koca -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 6:51 p.m.
          • Results-Based PR
            Rick Janowski -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 8:57 p.m.
            • Results-Based PR
              Bob Koca -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 10:18 p.m.
              • Results-Based PR
                Martin -- Monday, 2 February 2015, at 9:15 p.m.
            • Results-Based PR
              Christian Plenz -- Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 11:42 p.m.
              • Results-Based PR
                Maik Stiebler -- Monday, 2 February 2015, at 8:55 a.m.
  • Obtaining VRR data from XG - Problems
    Rick Janowski -- Monday, 2 February 2015, at 3:19 a.m.
    • Obtaining VRR data from XG - Problems
      Maik Stiebler -- Monday, 2 February 2015, at 4:45 a.m.
      • Obtaining VRR data from XG - Problems
        Rick Janowski -- Monday, 2 February 2015, at 5:30 a.m.