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OTB & RO

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Monday, 13 April 2015, at 1:14 a.m.

In Response To: Pay now or later? (John O'Hagan)

This came up in our local club tourney on Saturday. I was trailing 6-0 Crawford, a DMP-like score. OTB, I chose clearing the 8 and that is the DMP play. 16/5 is slightly better for money even though that play is supposed to get you doubled (vs. no double after pay later), wins less often, and loses nearly as many net gammons. Two main reasons why paying now is correct (IMO): 1)Many or most players will make the small mistake of not doubling as Black after 16/5 while virtually no one doubles after clearing the 8. 2)Your position is quite a bit better after an average + sequence than if you pay later and have a good sequence. After PN and a good sequence, your position is good enough for an initial double and TCTC for a redouble. After PL and a good sequence, you don't even have an initial double. Rollouts below.

First the 65 play for money:

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 118 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 102 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-BC-B-BbB---bB--B-bcbbb---:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10
to play 65

1.	Rollout1	16/5	eq: -0.305
	Player: Opponent: 41.15% (G:3.62% B:0.07%) 58.85% (G:14.24% B:0.56%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.313...-0.296) - [100.0%] Duration: 12 minutes 58 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/3 8/2	eq: -0.327 (-0.022)
	Player: Opponent: 43.28% (G:4.11% B:0.06%) 56.72% (G:16.16% B:0.55%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.336...-0.318) - [0.0%] Duration: 16 minutes 46 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00

After 16/5, Black has a small double:

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 118 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 91 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-BC-BABbB---bB--A-bcbbb---:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	58.05% (G:12.10% B:0.39%)	58.64% (G:14.04% B:0.50%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	41.95% (G:3.40% B:0.07%)	41.36% (G:3.72% B:0.07%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.251	+0.561
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.247 (-0.038)	±0.008 (+0.239..+0.254)
Double/Take:	+0.285	±0.014 (+0.271..+0.299)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.715)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 12 minutes 45 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00

After 8/2 8/3 Black isn't close to a double:

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 118 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 91 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-BDAB-Bb----bB--B-bcbbb---:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	56.85% (G:16.07% B:0.52%)	57.02% (G:16.25% B:0.55%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	43.15% (G:4.17% B:0.07%)	42.98% (G:4.11% B:0.07%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.260	+0.533
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.330	±0.012 (+0.318..+0.342)
Double/Take:	+0.229 (-0.101)	±0.013 (+0.215..+0.242)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.670)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11.6%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 11 minutes 26 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00

If you play 16/5, it goes D/T, Black misses, and you bring the straggler around to the 8. Black then plays some average number leaving a position something like this. It's then TCTC between R/NR.

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 104 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 83 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-BC-BABbC----B--aaacbbba--:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	67.09% (G:0.97% B:0.00%)	67.39% (G:0.86% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32.91% (G:2.59% B:0.07%)	32.61% (G:2.68% B:0.08%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.325	+0.657
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.535	±0.005 (+0.530..+0.539)
Redouble/Take:	+0.531 (-0.004)	±0.009 (+0.522..+0.540)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.465)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 0.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		75.1%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 9 minutes 06 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00

If Black had not doubled after your 16/5 play and you had the same good sequence, you could then offer an initial double:

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 104 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 83 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-BC-BABbC----B--aaacbbba--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	67.09% (G:0.95% B:0.02%)	67.39% (G:0.86% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32.91% (G:2.40% B:0.07%)	32.61% (G:2.68% B:0.08%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.327	+0.658
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.500 (-0.031)	±0.006 (+0.494..+0.505)
Double/Take:	+0.531	±0.009 (+0.522..+0.540)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.469)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 11 minutes 43 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00

If you paid later with 8/2 8/3, Black rolled average, you rolled a pretty good 63 (16/10 16/13), Black missed, you would not have an initial double:

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 104 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 82 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-BDAB-Bb--A--C--aaacbbba--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	64.54% (G:0.90% B:0.01%)	64.83% (G:0.72% B:0.01%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	35.46% (G:2.47% B:0.07%)	35.17% (G:2.48% B:0.08%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.274	+0.556
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.448	±0.007 (+0.441..+0.455)
Double/Take:	+0.419 (-0.029)	±0.010 (+0.409..+0.429)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.552)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 4.7%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 10 minutes 11 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00

And here is a DMP RO:

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 118 1 point match pip: 102 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-BC-B-BbB---bB--B-bcbbb---:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:1:10
to play 65

1.	Rollout1	8/3 8/2	eq: -0.135
	Player: Opponent: 43.25% (G:3.82% B:0.06%) 56.75% (G:13.95% B:0.78%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.139...-0.131) - [100.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 45 seconds
2.	Rollout1	16/5	eq: -0.189 (-0.054)
	Player: Opponent: 40.57% (G:3.35% B:0.03%) 59.43% (G:11.07% B:0.77%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.192...-0.185) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 20 seconds
3.	3-ply	16/11 16/10	eq: -0.306 (-0.171)
	Player: Opponent: 34.72% (G:3.28% B:0.04%) 65.28% (G:19.11% B:0.57%)
4.	3-ply	8/2 6/1	eq: -0.369 (-0.234)
	Player: Opponent: 31.55% (G:2.40% B:0.02%) 68.45% (G:24.46% B:0.65%)
5.	3-ply	13/2	eq: -0.420 (-0.285)
	Player: Opponent: 28.99% (G:3.50% B:0.05%) 71.01% (G:22.05% B:0.64%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Pay now or later?
  John O'Hagan -- Saturday, 11 April 2015, at 10:18 p.m.
  • Pay now or later?
    Karol Szczerek -- Saturday, 11 April 2015, at 10:55 p.m.
    • Pay now or later?
      Albert Steg -- Sunday, 12 April 2015, at 2:08 a.m.
  • Pay now or later?
    Igor -- Sunday, 12 April 2015, at 2:56 a.m.
  • Pay now or later?
    Taper_Mike -- Sunday, 12 April 2015, at 4:28 a.m.
  • Pay now or later?
    Sean Garber -- Sunday, 12 April 2015, at 5:32 a.m.
    • Pay now or later?
      Karol Szczerek -- Sunday, 12 April 2015, at 8:50 a.m.
  • Pay now or later?
    Casper Van der Tak -- Sunday, 12 April 2015, at 6:22 a.m.
    • Pay now or later?
      garyo -- Sunday, 12 April 2015, at 2:12 p.m.
    • Pay now or later?
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 12 April 2015, at 7:07 p.m.
      • Pay now or later?
        Casper Van der Tak -- Sunday, 12 April 2015, at 7:20 p.m.
  • Pay now or later?
    Wolfgang -- Sunday, 12 April 2015, at 2:57 p.m.
  • Pay now or later?
    Fatboy -- Monday, 13 April 2015, at 12:13 a.m.
  • OTB & RO
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 13 April 2015, at 1:14 a.m.
    • OTB & RO
      Chuck Bower -- Monday, 13 April 2015, at 1:32 a.m.
    • OTB & RO
      Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 13 April 2015, at 6:31 a.m.
      • OTB & RO
        John O'Hagan -- Monday, 13 April 2015, at 1:40 p.m.
        • OTB & RO
          Fatboy -- Monday, 13 April 2015, at 8:39 p.m.
    • OTB & RO
      ChanningW -- Monday, 13 April 2015, at 8:12 a.m.
      • +1 *NM*
        Max Levenstein -- Monday, 13 April 2015, at 12:34 p.m.