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BGonline.org Forums
When to break anchor?
Posted By: Mochy In Response To: When to break anchor? (Dmitriy Obukhov)
Date: Monday, 29 June 2015, at 3:02 a.m.
What I usually do;
1) Check race - the more lead you have, the more incentive for race
2) Check his position - is he about to crunch or leave a shot? If so, you have more incentive to stay.
3) How the other play works? - Would you crack your board? Would you bury checkers?
In this position, I say 1) is to stay. (Race lead is not enough). 2) is to stay. (He will leave a blot on a mid point, or break his bar point) 3) is to race. So I am not really sure. Because putting 2 checkers on a 1pt looks really ugly.
So I go a bit further. I divide the numbers into 4 groups then check out the equity swing between the safe play and the run play.
Group a) "Point on" 5 numbers: 21 11 22 44
Group b) "Pick pass" 8 numbers: 31 32 41 42
Group c) "Loos hit" 10 numbers: 62 61 52 51 53
Group d) "Nothing" 13 nubmers: Others
As for group a), my estimate of the swing is 40% gain for the safe. So it favors the safe play by 2 numbers.(5 * 40%)
As for group d), my estimate of the swing is 20% gain for the run. So it favors the run play by 2.6 numbers. (13 * 20%)
Now I already know the safe should be correct because the safe play surely gains 0.6 numbers out of 18 numbers (group b + c). Most likely group b alone can compensate 0.6, because those small numbers are bad for the race but become excellent if blue had run.This type of the position is good for those kind of groping and estimation. I must admit there is a risk that I could screw up in the estimation process, but if it is the case at least I could sharpen my estimation and do it better next time.
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