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Can someone explain this to me

Posted By: Jeremy Bagai
Date: Tuesday, 9 August 2016, at 5:49 p.m.

In Response To: Can someone explain this to me (Kevin Finch)

Hi Kevin,

You found a great position and asked a great question: (paraphrasing) “How is it the play with the better outcome distribution has lower equity?”

You got some great replies that explained what was happening in the position: “Don’t take excess risk when approaching a cash.” But that explanation doesn’t precisely answer your question.

I think the technical answer to your technical question is: The outcome distribution you’re looking at is a cubeless outcome distribution, and therefore (technically) is not the appropriate starting data for calculating cubeful equity. The way to determine cubeful equity from a rollout is to keep track of how many games Black can cash (or, potentially, double-in) versus how many games White goes on to win. Obviously the “Don’t take excess risk when approaching a cash” concept will show up in these numbers. And these are the numbers that XG actually uses to produce cubeful equity after a rollout.

However, when doing a rollout, XG also keeps track of cubelss data and reports those cubeless outcome distribution numbers, giving you some easy-to-parse comparisons between plays. But in positions like yours with immediate cube effects, those data are misleading.

Hope that helps.

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