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The Backgammon Solution

Posted By: Casper Van der Tak
Date: Sunday, 16 October 2016, at 11:18 a.m.

In Response To: The Backgammon Solution (Casper Van der Tak)

So the problem in the two envelop problem (or here, if you don't look) is that people treat the amount in the selected envelop as a fixed amount no matter whether it is the higher or lower amount of the two, and start adding and subtracting on that basis, whereas if it is the higher amount, it is twice the amount compared to when it is the lower amount.

In the original problem posted here, we start with a 50% chance that we selected the higher amount, and need to update that in light of the information on the amount in the envelop, and then can calculate whether or not to switch on basis of expected value. I think I'd look at the venue and such clues, and likely would switch. If it is 20 million I got, the place and people must be pretty chic for me to switch.

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