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USA vs Japan Streaming from the Chicago Open and more...

Posted By: Rory
Date: Monday, 21 May 2018, at 11:21 p.m.

In Response To: USA vs Japan Streaming from the Chicago Open and more... (Bob Koca)

I used the Formula xy+xz+yz-2xyz to determine the actual equity if you had to win 2/3 matches with different starting scores. If either country was to win all 6 points available in stage 1 then they would have a 6-0 advantage (ME of 75.28) in a singular 15-point championship match. But since they must win 2/3 the match equity would be higher if they started all three matches 6-0 (ME 84.69). Under this scenario the ME of 6-0 became the target ME. Please refer to the table to see what the targets are what the actuals are going to be.

ScoreTarget Match EquityActual Match EquityStarting Scores
6-075.28%74.24%4,4,4
5-071.11%70.40%4,3,3
4-066.79%66.40%3,3,2
3-062.53%62.26%2,2,2
2-058.25%58.18%1,1,2
1-054.08%54.08%1,1,0

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