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Hit or not

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Monday, 30 November 2009, at 3:47 a.m.

In Response To: Hit or not (eXtreme Gammon)

You can hit with 8/5x or 6/4 6/5x, or play safe by burying checkers on your low points or maybe by clearing the 8-point with 8/6 8/7. Probably 4/2 3/2 is the best non-hitting play. 8/5x is the best hitting play even though the 2 blots could occasionally get you gammoned. There's 53 plus 52 or 51 followed by hitting the other blot -- should be about 1.5 gammons.

If you hit and he dances, I think you win about 23 of those 25 games (22.5 singles and 0.5 g's). Of the 11 hits, you lose 9.5 singles and 1.5 g's. That's the equivalent of 13.50 single losses. He owns the cube but that's not worth much in this position so give him 14 wins if we hit.

If you don't hit, it's mainly a race but he'll stay around for another turn if he rolls small #'s. I'll guess he's got 31% cubeless chances plus around 1/6 extra for cube ownership for a total of around 36%, with no g's for either side. 36% of 36 is a little less than 13/36.

So safe looks better.

Messages In This Thread

• Hit or not
  eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 30 November 2009, at 1:53 a.m.
  • Hit or not
    Stick -- Monday, 30 November 2009, at 2:02 a.m.
    • Hit or not
      neilkaz -- Monday, 30 November 2009, at 3:51 a.m.
      • Hit or not
        Phil Simborg -- Monday, 30 November 2009, at 5:13 a.m.
        • Hit or not
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 30 November 2009, at 5:51 a.m.
        • Hit or not
          Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 30 November 2009, at 7:19 a.m.
  • Hit or not
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 30 November 2009, at 2:03 a.m.
    • Hit or not
      eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 30 November 2009, at 2:33 a.m.
      • Hit or not
        lenny -- Monday, 30 November 2009, at 2:40 a.m.
        • Hit or not
          Stick -- Monday, 30 November 2009, at 3:41 a.m.
        • Hit or not
          Stick -- Monday, 30 November 2009, at 4:39 a.m.
  • Hit or not
    Bill Riles -- Monday, 30 November 2009, at 3:10 a.m.
  • Hit or not
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 30 November 2009, at 3:47 a.m.
  • Hit or not
    Rich Munitz -- Monday, 30 November 2009, at 5:09 a.m.
  • Hit or not
    garyo -- Monday, 30 November 2009, at 4:45 p.m.
  • Rollout and Comments
    eXtreme Gammon -- Tuesday, 1 December 2009, at 12:09 a.m.
    • Rollout and Comments (money)
      eXtreme Gammon -- Tuesday, 1 December 2009, at 12:12 a.m.
    • Rollout and Comments
      Phil Simborg -- Tuesday, 1 December 2009, at 7:28 a.m.
  • Hit or not
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 1 December 2009, at 9:25 p.m.
    • Hit or not
      eXtreme Gammon -- Wednesday, 2 December 2009, at 3:13 a.m.
    • Hit or not
      Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 2 December 2009, at 6:41 a.m.