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Hit or not

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Wednesday, 2 December 2009, at 6:41 a.m.

In Response To: Hit or not (Timothy Chow)

but this example illustrates that they can be very confusing and misleading sometimes.

Well, (again) I'll say that if one remembers to understand what the bot is telling you, one shouldn't be "very" confused about the presentation.

Xavier is right -- a detailed description of all the probable outcomes in a position where doubles (and perhaps redoubles) and gammons (perhaps for both sides, and on two or more different cube values) are possible, is probably more data than you'd find useful to absorb, while the wrong kind of simplified summary (for instance a presentation of a raw win percentage, where what really matters is how many wins occur on which cube levels) would mislead you in a different way.

Still, in a position like the one below ...

Money game. Blue on roll.


1X ' '1X ' ' ' ' ' ' ' '

 '1O ' '1O ' ' ' ' ' ' '



Alert: wrong double ( -0.1281)!

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.2380
Cubeful equities:
1.No double +0.2392
2.Double, pass +1.0000 +0.7608
3.Double, take +0.1111 -0.1281
Proper cube action:No redouble, take (14.4%)
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Player Blue owns 2-cube0.61900.00000.0000-0.38100.00000.0000 +0.2380 +0.2392
Standard error0.00000.00000.0000-0.00000.00000.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Player White owns 4-cube0.61900.00000.0000-0.38100.00000.0000 +0.4760 +0.1111
Standard error0.00000.00000.0000-0.00000.00000.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
46656 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 842838737 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

... althought the equities are obviously correct, it might be nice if a bot were smart enough not to seem to be telling you that Blue wins 61.96% of the time whether or not Blue redoubles.

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