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5K GNU rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 21 May 2010, at 12:00 a.m.

In Response To: Third roll double 3's (Timothy Chow)

For what it's worth, here's my 5K GNU rollout. As I mentioned already, OTB I had in mind a couple of positions from Robertie's 501 book (23 in particular but also 103) where building the board was correct. Also in general I like building the board with 42P-xxx-33 because I feel it makes the game easier for me to play and that I'm less likely to make big errors later. I think it is only a slight exaggeration to say that I now have only 7 checkers left to play with so that my choices are simpler. Conversely it is not easy for my opponent to play correctly—how boldly/cautiously should he play? Under what circumstances should he get the back checkers moving and when should he leave them there? When can he take a double?

Nevertheless the rollout suggests that the attacking chances afforded by 24/21(2) 8/5(2) make it the superior play. I can believe this, though I still think that 8/5(2) 6/3(2) is an excellent practical choice for anyone below world-class level.

gnubg	162
tchow	161
Position ID: 4HPhASiYZ/ABMA Match ID: cIkNACAACAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	24/21(2) 8/5(2)	+0.577
			0.626 0.209 0.007 - 0.374 0.072 0.003 +0.394 +0.577 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.005
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852983425 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	8/5(2) 6/3(2)	+0.546 ( -0.030)
			0.618 0.239 0.011 - 0.382 0.099 0.005 +0.383 +0.546 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852983425 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Third roll double 3's
  Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 2:17 a.m.
  • Third roll double 3's
    John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 3:07 a.m.
    • Third roll double 3's
      lenny -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 3:30 a.m.
      • Third roll double 3's
        Bob Koca -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 5:33 p.m.
        • Third roll double 3's
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 5:36 p.m.
        • Third roll double 3's
          Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 6:35 p.m.
          • Third roll double 3's
            lenny -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 8:19 p.m.
  • Third roll double 3's
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 3:17 a.m.
  • Third roll double 3's
    bob koca -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 4:20 a.m.
    • Third roll double 3's
      Bob Koca -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 5:31 p.m.
      • Third roll double 3's
        Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 6:04 p.m.
      • 42P-32D-33 and 42P-43D-33, analysis
        Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 6:33 p.m.
  • Third roll double 3's
    Stick -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 5:35 a.m.
    • Third roll double 3's
      Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 3:25 p.m.
  • 42P-41S-33 and 42P-21S-33 (Bot Info Included)
    Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 5:44 a.m.
    • 42P-41S-33 and 42P-21S-33 (Bot Info Included)
      johnk -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 6:35 p.m.
  • 5K GNU rollout
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 12:00 a.m.
    • 5K GNU rollout
      Chuck Bower -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 12:34 a.m.
      • 5K GNU rollout
        Timothy Chow -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 2:08 a.m.
    • Got Variance?
      Stick -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 1:59 a.m.
      • Got Variance?
        Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 3:25 a.m.
        • Got Variance?
          Stick -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 3:38 a.m.
        • Got Variance?
          Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 6:10 a.m.
          • Got Variance?
            bob koca -- Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 7:01 a.m.
            • Got Variance?
              Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 8:45 p.m.
              • Got Variance?
                Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 9:06 p.m.
                • Got Variance?
                  Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 10:41 p.m.
                  • Got Variance?
                    Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 11:00 p.m.
                    • Got Variance?
                      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 11:30 p.m.
                      • Got Variance?
                        Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 12:58 a.m.
                        • Got Variance?
                          Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 2:56 p.m.
                          • Got Variance?
                            Tom Keith -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 4:53 p.m.
                            • Got Variance?
                              Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 9:35 p.m.
            • Got Variance? I did that test
              eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 12:00 a.m.
            • Got Variance?
              Nack Ballard -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 5:29 a.m.
          • Got Variance?
            Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 4:02 p.m.
            • Got Variance?
              Nack Ballard -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 5:52 a.m.