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Got Variance?

Posted By: bob koca
Date: Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 7:01 a.m.

In Response To: Got Variance? (Nack Ballard)

Are you suggesting that the CI calculations are systematically too small? That can be tested directly rather than relying on what seems to be:

Rollout a position to death so its equity is essentially known exactly. Then with various seeds roll it out say 1296 times. Calculate the CI (the 50% confidence interval will be best to use). Check to see if the CI contains the actual true value. Calculate what % of the 50% CI actually do contain the true value.

Messages In This Thread

• Third roll double 3's
  Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 2:17 a.m.
  • Third roll double 3's
    John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 3:07 a.m.
    • Third roll double 3's
      lenny -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 3:30 a.m.
      • Third roll double 3's
        Bob Koca -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 5:33 p.m.
        • Third roll double 3's
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 5:36 p.m.
        • Third roll double 3's
          Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 6:35 p.m.
          • Third roll double 3's
            lenny -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 8:19 p.m.
  • Third roll double 3's
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 3:17 a.m.
  • Third roll double 3's
    bob koca -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 4:20 a.m.
    • Third roll double 3's
      Bob Koca -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 5:31 p.m.
      • Third roll double 3's
        Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 6:04 p.m.
      • 42P-32D-33 and 42P-43D-33, analysis
        Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 6:33 p.m.
  • Third roll double 3's
    Stick -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 5:35 a.m.
    • Third roll double 3's
      Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 3:25 p.m.
  • 42P-41S-33 and 42P-21S-33 (Bot Info Included)
    Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 5:44 a.m.
    • 42P-41S-33 and 42P-21S-33 (Bot Info Included)
      johnk -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 6:35 p.m.
  • 5K GNU rollout
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 12:00 a.m.
    • 5K GNU rollout
      Chuck Bower -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 12:34 a.m.
      • 5K GNU rollout
        Timothy Chow -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 2:08 a.m.
    • Got Variance?
      Stick -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 1:59 a.m.
      • Got Variance?
        Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 3:25 a.m.
        • Got Variance?
          Stick -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 3:38 a.m.
        • Got Variance?
          Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 6:10 a.m.
          • Got Variance?
            bob koca -- Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 7:01 a.m.
            • Got Variance?
              Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 8:45 p.m.
              • Got Variance?
                Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 9:06 p.m.
                • Got Variance?
                  Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 10:41 p.m.
                  • Got Variance?
                    Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 11:00 p.m.
                    • Got Variance?
                      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 11:30 p.m.
                      • Got Variance?
                        Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 12:58 a.m.
                        • Got Variance?
                          Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 2:56 p.m.
                          • Got Variance?
                            Tom Keith -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 4:53 p.m.
                            • Got Variance?
                              Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 9:35 p.m.
            • Got Variance? I did that test
              eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 12:00 a.m.
            • Got Variance?
              Nack Ballard -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 5:29 a.m.
          • Got Variance?
            Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 4:02 p.m.
            • Got Variance?
              Nack Ballard -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 5:52 a.m.