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Got Variance?

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 24 May 2010, at 5:29 a.m.

In Response To: Got Variance? (bob koca)

Are you suggesting that the CI calculations are systematically too small?

Maybe, but not necessarily. It just seems to me that outliers occur more than the bots indicate they should (in early game rollouts). It is possible that the average CI is correct (or mostly correct) but there are disproportionately few results between the "hits" and the big misses and that I haven't been looking for that paradigm.

That can be tested directly rather than relying on what seems to be... [Proposed procedure omitted.]

I agree, and your ideas are good (as usual), but I don't want to spend the already-too-little CPU power of myself and those kind volunteers to whom I assign early game positions. I'm just alerting people to what I perceive and if others notice the same thing hopefully someone(s) will become interested in making it his/their pet project :)

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• Third roll double 3's
  Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 2:17 a.m.
  • Third roll double 3's
    John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 3:07 a.m.
    • Third roll double 3's
      lenny -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 3:30 a.m.
      • Third roll double 3's
        Bob Koca -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 5:33 p.m.
        • Third roll double 3's
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 5:36 p.m.
        • Third roll double 3's
          Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 6:35 p.m.
          • Third roll double 3's
            lenny -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 8:19 p.m.
  • Third roll double 3's
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 3:17 a.m.
  • Third roll double 3's
    bob koca -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 4:20 a.m.
    • Third roll double 3's
      Bob Koca -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 5:31 p.m.
      • Third roll double 3's
        Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 6:04 p.m.
      • 42P-32D-33 and 42P-43D-33, analysis
        Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 6:33 p.m.
  • Third roll double 3's
    Stick -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 5:35 a.m.
    • Third roll double 3's
      Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 3:25 p.m.
  • 42P-41S-33 and 42P-21S-33 (Bot Info Included)
    Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 5:44 a.m.
    • 42P-41S-33 and 42P-21S-33 (Bot Info Included)
      johnk -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 6:35 p.m.
  • 5K GNU rollout
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 12:00 a.m.
    • 5K GNU rollout
      Chuck Bower -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 12:34 a.m.
      • 5K GNU rollout
        Timothy Chow -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 2:08 a.m.
    • Got Variance?
      Stick -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 1:59 a.m.
      • Got Variance?
        Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 3:25 a.m.
        • Got Variance?
          Stick -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 3:38 a.m.
        • Got Variance?
          Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 6:10 a.m.
          • Got Variance?
            bob koca -- Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 7:01 a.m.
            • Got Variance?
              Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 8:45 p.m.
              • Got Variance?
                Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 9:06 p.m.
                • Got Variance?
                  Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 10:41 p.m.
                  • Got Variance?
                    Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 11:00 p.m.
                    • Got Variance?
                      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 11:30 p.m.
                      • Got Variance?
                        Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 12:58 a.m.
                        • Got Variance?
                          Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 2:56 p.m.
                          • Got Variance?
                            Tom Keith -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 4:53 p.m.
                            • Got Variance?
                              Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 9:35 p.m.
            • Got Variance? I did that test
              eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 12:00 a.m.
            • Got Variance?
              Nack Ballard -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 5:29 a.m.
          • Got Variance?
            Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 4:02 p.m.
            • Got Variance?
              Nack Ballard -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 5:52 a.m.