
BGonline.org Forums
Got Variance?
Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 4:02 p.m.
In Response To: Got Variance? (Nack Ballard)
I don't know, maybe for every pair of rollouts that gets scrutinized for which the odds of such a change are 1 in 120, there are 119 other pairs of rollouts for which the change wouldn't be so "wild" (that's "W," right?) but nobody's looked.
Now that Snowie and Gnubg have been reporting their 95% confidence intervals for several years, perhaps those CI's should be put to the test. Hopefully with a reassuring outcome. Because if you can't trust a bot when it says CI ± 0.100, what about ± 0.040, ± 0.020, ± 0.010, CI ± 0.005, CI ± 0.002 .... Think of the literally thousands of positions that have been discussed for which one and only one rollout was ever done. That's a lot of (potential) misplaced confidence.

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