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Got Variance?

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 11:00 p.m.

In Response To: Got Variance? (Timothy Chow)

Well .. if one's claim is that the CI is underestimated in only some positions but perfectly fine in many (most? gazillions?) others, I'd like to know what one is thinking the bot is doing that would make that possible -- and how we'd identify such problem positions, and what to do about it.

It seems odd that a bot would a have problem with "typical" positions, but not with others.

Also, should we expect the CI to be correct in all rollouts of all positions after X trials? If so, why? If not, then picking/finding one such position only supports that "not."

Messages In This Thread

• Third roll double 3's
  Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 2:17 a.m.
  • Third roll double 3's
    John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 3:07 a.m.
    • Third roll double 3's
      lenny -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 3:30 a.m.
      • Third roll double 3's
        Bob Koca -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 5:33 p.m.
        • Third roll double 3's
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 5:36 p.m.
        • Third roll double 3's
          Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 6:35 p.m.
          • Third roll double 3's
            lenny -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 8:19 p.m.
  • Third roll double 3's
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 3:17 a.m.
  • Third roll double 3's
    bob koca -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 4:20 a.m.
    • Third roll double 3's
      Bob Koca -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 5:31 p.m.
      • Third roll double 3's
        Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 6:04 p.m.
      • 42P-32D-33 and 42P-43D-33, analysis
        Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 6:33 p.m.
  • Third roll double 3's
    Stick -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 5:35 a.m.
    • Third roll double 3's
      Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 3:25 p.m.
  • 42P-41S-33 and 42P-21S-33 (Bot Info Included)
    Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 5:44 a.m.
    • 42P-41S-33 and 42P-21S-33 (Bot Info Included)
      johnk -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 6:35 p.m.
  • 5K GNU rollout
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 12:00 a.m.
    • 5K GNU rollout
      Chuck Bower -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 12:34 a.m.
      • 5K GNU rollout
        Timothy Chow -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 2:08 a.m.
    • Got Variance?
      Stick -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 1:59 a.m.
      • Got Variance?
        Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 3:25 a.m.
        • Got Variance?
          Stick -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 3:38 a.m.
        • Got Variance?
          Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 6:10 a.m.
          • Got Variance?
            bob koca -- Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 7:01 a.m.
            • Got Variance?
              Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 8:45 p.m.
              • Got Variance?
                Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 9:06 p.m.
                • Got Variance?
                  Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 10:41 p.m.
                  • Got Variance?
                    Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 11:00 p.m.
                    • Got Variance?
                      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 11:30 p.m.
                      • Got Variance?
                        Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 12:58 a.m.
                        • Got Variance?
                          Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 2:56 p.m.
                          • Got Variance?
                            Tom Keith -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 4:53 p.m.
                            • Got Variance?
                              Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 9:35 p.m.
            • Got Variance? I did that test
              eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 12:00 a.m.
            • Got Variance?
              Nack Ballard -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 5:29 a.m.
          • Got Variance?
            Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 23 May 2010, at 4:02 p.m.
            • Got Variance?
              Nack Ballard -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 5:52 a.m.