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Estimating Winning Chances in a Skewed Race

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Monday, 30 September 2013, at 12:38 p.m.

In Response To: Estimating Winning Chances in a Skewed Race (Chris Bray)

I'll give it a try, but I'm not all that good at this:

Adjust whites score by adding 3 for the spares on the two and another 1 for the vacant 6 point. I get an adjusted count of 39. No adjustment for blue.

White's point of last take for money is (46 - 5) /7 ~ 6, so if blue were 6 pips ahead, white would be at about 22% to win. Instead, blue is behind by 7 pips (46-39). At 2% per pip that's an additional 26%, for a total of about 48%.

Details in Trice's Backgammon Bootcamp.

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