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Win Rate as a function of PR difference - XG Feature

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 20 August 2015, at 9:16 p.m.

In Response To: Win Rate as a function of PR difference - XG Feature (Maik Stiebler)

Maik Stiebler wrote:

I'll admit though that I have no idea what that rule is based on

Xavier said that he based it on online games from GammonSite.

I always found it somewhat surprising that one rule should fit all match lengths.

Well, the usual formula that converts from Elo difference to match winning chances takes the match length as a parameter. Are you saying that the dependence on match length in that formula is surprisingly simple? I have also had my doubts about the way match length enters that formula.

Or are you saying that the concept of "backgammon skill" is too complex a concept to be captured by a single number, and that backgammon matches of different lengths are sufficiently different types of games that we should not expect (for example) that if A is better than B at five-point matches then A will also be better than B at eleven-point matches?

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