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Fun new probability puzzle (Helpful example)

Posted By: Jeremy Bagai
Date: Saturday, 27 May 2017, at 5:39 a.m.

In Response To: Fun new probability puzzle (Jeremy Bagai)

Helpful extreme case: Suppose the choice were between a gun with 3 bullets or 50/50 chance of gun with 0 or 6 bullets. Three bullets gives you .5 * .5 = .25 chance of survival, whereas the gamble gives you .5.

But 'why' does variance produce a better result in the iterated case, while not in the single-round case?

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