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BGonline.org Forums
Why counterintuitve?
Posted By: Bob Koca In Response To: Fun new probability puzzle (David Levy)
Date: Saturday, 27 May 2017, at 4:14 p.m.
My first guess is almost always correct for these probability puzzles that others find counterintuitive so possibly I am not the best one to ask about what is counterintuitive about it. But I do have some guesses.
1) There may be a feeling that variability is "bad". But that is definitely not always the case.
2) There is a value judgement being made here that is beyond mathematics that being shot dead is bad. If instead you were an assassin giving the gun then being shot dead is good. So even is variability were bad it is bad to whom?
3) The case of thinking about the gun being fired twice and then looking at probability of at least one bullet hitting gives the same result of not bothering firing the gun again after a hit and I think makes the analysis a lot simpler. Some cannot make that leap though since it does not match what happens in real life. A similar example is suppose that in a best of 7 series that in each game A defeats B with probability p and you are asked to find probability that A wins the series. One way to do it is to add the probabilities that A wins in 4, 5, 6, or 7 games. Another way that many will not consider is to assume that all 7 games are played (even after the series is decided) and find P(A wins at least 4).
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