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OT: How Often Do Gamblers Win?

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 13 October 2013, at 9:03 p.m.

In Response To: OT: How Often Do Gamblers Win? (Fatboy)

I just wanted you to be more specific on what you meant by "there are no beatable 21 games left in Vegas". I didn't think you were blowing smoke up anyone's ass. I wondered if you thought the games couldn't be beaten (from rule changes and ASM) or that they could in theory still be beaten except that you'd be marked as a counter too quickly and asked to leave the ballpark.

The games they run still can be beat in the sense if I could flop my happy ass down and pay little regard to my bet spread and play the hands how they're supposed to be played without any heat it'd be fine. Even with a contained bet spread and playing the hands roughly how they're supposed to be played there is still a +EV game for the player in Vegas. A lot of games haven't yet switched to ASMs (automated shuffling machines). The single deck game is pretty dead where you'll either have a rule change or a shuffle after one hand but 6 or 8 deck shoes they still deal for a while even if they cut off with a deck and a half and reshuffle you can find some positive vig in there.

Still...there's the issue of being marked as a counter. It's too easy to spot someone who knows what they're doing anymore. It's a different question of whether this person knows enough to beat the game but I imagine they ban anyone who pays too much attention to the game. A bad counter loses just as much as someone who plays only basic strategy but to differentiate between a bad counter and a good one takes a lot more precision on the part of the pits/eyes in the sky and they probably chuck first and ask questions later.

There are at least a couple (ex) card counters on these forums. Neilkaz, Jake Jacobs, and myself that I know of. I think Jake has worked with a team before, I never have nor do I believe Neil has. Anyway, in a sense, yes, you can't beat the game in the sense of you'll be discovered too quickly or it would be the most brutal grind ever but the games in and of themselves are still beatable.

"It was fun to learn, get good at and go win a few bucks, took lots of practice and to win you have to be prepared. It's not like riding a bike, so to speak."

I agree with that. That's the main reason I looked into it to begin with. It's not like learning to ride a bike if you want to get back on but it really isn't much to revise if you learned it like you were supposed to the first time. I also get bored now and again and count down decks or revise charts just in case the opportunity arises at a local ... whatever those things are called, I blanked on the word, or home games sometimes people will deal them out.

I've been told that if you strictly play the highest pay out slot machines and get your other comps kicked back in the right way that slots can be +EV for a player but have never cared to look into that. Slots bore the pants off of me.

as far as beatable casino games in Vegas, good luck

Yes, that's what I need, good *luck* ;-) There is one game that I frequent where the house advantage given perfect play hovers between 0-1% max. The problem is, (almost) no one knows how to play it perfectly. There are no books out on it. It is listed on Wizard of Odds but even they don't go into how to play it out. The casino's real rate advantage I'm guessing is closer 10%.


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