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OT: How Often Do Gamblers Win?

Posted By: Fatboy
Date: Sunday, 13 October 2013, at 4:24 p.m.

In Response To: OT: How Often Do Gamblers Win? (Stick)

Good Morning Mr Stick,

What they have done to 21 is just simple rule changes or automated shufflers.

The HardRock was the 1st place I saw auto shufflers, thats is a machine that shuffles the cards every hand of 21. That makes it a independent trials process like roulette or flipping a coin, what happened last shuffel has no bearing on the remaining cards(which is what 21 beatable). When 21 was a dependent trails process what cards were already seen gave the player a idea of what remained in the deck for the next deal. If the right cards were in the deck raise the bet, if the wrong cards were left in the deck bet then minimum or go take a pee. And wait for a better deck. Bet high when its good and low when its bad.

The joints that didnt add auto shufflers, made rule changes. for example:

1. Only split 10's,11's. this is huge for the house. I want to split 9's and 8's when the dealer had a 6 up(most of the time-depends on what cards i have seen in the prior hand(s).

2. No double down after the split. For example I have 10 units bet catch 8,8 the dealer catches a 6. I split this hand & I catch a 3. the joints wont let me double this bet anymore. On the grind over time this is HUGE because i'd get 30 units bet not 20. It comes up often enough to be noticeable.

3. On the Strip back in 04 IIRC(cold have been earlier)(Downtown kept the 3-2 as a hook to get players) they started paying 6-5 for a BJ, not 3-2. That lowers the EV hugely quickly. everyone here is more than capable of calculating that faster than me.

That's 4 examples of what they did to ruin 21(single deck) I'm a single deck player, thats my training and basis of this post. I have seen double deck and shoe games that they shuffle so often its for all practical purposes the same as a auto shuffler on a single deck game.

to summarize things, they just changed enough rules so you cant bet more $$$ when you want to and thats enough to make it impossible to beat.

One other thing, in the single deck games at the very end of beatable 21 in Downtown(I had started playing again-Istopped, i'll explain later-no i wasn't in jail lol) When i did start they had a rule that your second bet of the shuffle could only be 3X your first bet and in some joints the 4Q's it was only double the first bet. thus if the dek was great you could only double or triple your 1st bet(always the minimum on the 1st hand).

I got caught and barred from every casino down town for beating them. Here is how sad it is, I was only clipping them for $200-$500 a shot, 80% of the time was $300 or less. I was never taken in back and photographed, just asked to cash out and leave-"NOW!!!!".

In my OP I didn't edit it right, the casino owner i'm good friends with. The card cheat I have known for over 20 years he isn't my friend. I dont like him at all never have. I know him from the pool world. I'm not a champion(world class) player in pool, just a very solid seasoned player. Pool is struggling, I have played backgammon from 2000-2004? about 4 years and had to stop due to health problem. I'm back!!! Well I never was really here...

as far as beatable casino games in Vegas, good luck. they have ratcheted up the hold from 3%-5% up to 12% over the 20 some yeas i've lived there. on some deuces wild video poker games with optimal play they pay back 100.3%-I don't recall what the pay table has to be to determine if its the correct machine. A quick Google search will answer that.

hope i gave you some insight, i'm not a BS'er if I dont know I dont make things up, if i do know, i'm glad to share.

kindest regards

Eric Petersen

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