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BGonline.org Forums
Opinions About Giving Odds
Posted By: scotty In Response To: Opinions About Giving Odds (Fatboy)
Date: Monday, 14 April 2014, at 8:43 a.m.
the drop and take points change for each player. For example in a simple game where neither side has substantial gammon chances, the trailing player needs a 25% chance of winning to be able to take the cube. With a 3-2 payoff, that is reduced to 20% winning chances. So player A can wait a little longer for a stronger position before offering the cube, and Player B can accept cubes, which player A would drop.
a simple example, playing without any handicap provided:
consider that a position is reached in 100 games, where player B has a 25% probability of winning and player A offers the cube.
If player B drops everytime, he loses $100. if player B takes and wins 25% of the games, he wins 25 X 2 = $50 if player B takes and loses 75% of the games, he loses 75 x 2 = $150 Player B's net loss if he takes is $100, the same as if he had dropped. This is the point where B becomes indifferent between taking and dropping. If B's winning chances are slightly greater than 25%, his losses decrease.
with a 3-2 handicap , a different position is reached in 100 games, where B has a 20% chance of winning, and player A offers the cube.
if player B drops everytime, he loses $100 if player B takes and wins 20% of the games, he wins 20 x 2 x3/2 = $60 if player B takes and loses 80% of the games, he loses 80 X 2 =$160
This is the point where B becomes indifferent between accepting or dropping the cube. If B has winning chances greater than 20%, his losses are decreased.
Without working it out...i suspect the A's drop point becomes 31.25% winning chances, and B must offer the cube before he is too good to double at 68.75% winning chances.
So the answer is yes, there is a way to 'price bg'. The handicap becomes "capitalized" into the cube.
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