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PART 1: HG vs Race cube efficiency near take point
Posted By: Bob Koca In Response To: Live Cube TP (Gammonless / Match) (Timothy Chow)
Date: Friday, 6 June 2014, at 5:11 p.m.
Here are some positions that help.
First is a holding game down in the race that would be a borderline pass. We should expect that cube efficiency is very low since most wins come from a crushing hit. The RO does indeed show that but lower levels show XG does not use this concept.
Results are shown for 2-ply, XG ++, and RO. The difference between cubeless and cubeful equity for the RO is .036 and it shows a pass with DT equity of 1.042. The difference from XG++ is .046 and it shows a pass with 1.026 DT. If 2-ply is used the cubeless equity of .552 is essentially correct but instead the difference between cubeless and cubeful is .081. XG on 2 ply mistakenly thinks it is a solid .941 take due to drastically overestimating the cube power.
What follows is a race where 2-ply thinks the cubeless equity is .551. The difference between cubeless and cubeful is .074 and 2 - ply thinks it is a .954 take. The RO shows very close results.
Summarizing 2 ply does a great job at getting the win percentages correct for both the race and the holding game position. It does a great job at factoring cube power for the race and 2 - ply gives a very good value for the take equity and does a poor job at factoring in cube power for the holding game position (seemingly treating it just like a race?) and gets the take equity wrong by about .101.
This already shows that trying to emulate OTB what XG does may not be the best goal.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 117Unlimited Game pip: 86
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=-BABBbBBB----Ba--bbbbbb---:1:-1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in 2-ply No redouble Redouble/Take Player Winning Chances: 77.06% (G:2.40% B:0.01%) Opponent Winning Chances: 22.94% (G:1.29% B:0.08%) Cubeless Equities +0.552 +1.103 Cubeful Equities No redouble: +0.471 (-0.471) Redouble/Take: +0.941 Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.059) Best Cube action: Redouble / Take eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 117Unlimited Game pip: 86
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=-BABBbBBB----Ba--bbbbbb---:1:-1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take Player Winning Chances: 77.86% (G:1.73% B:0.02%) 77.86% (G:1.73% B:0.02%) Opponent Winning Chances: 22.14% (G:1.57% B:0.04%) 22.14% (G:1.57% B:0.04%) Cubeless Equities +0.559 +1.117 Cubeful Equities No redouble: +0.513 (-0.487) Redouble/Take: +1.026 (+0.026) Redouble/Pass: +1.000 Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 117Unlimited Game pip: 86
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=-BABBbBBB----Ba--bbbbbb---:1:-1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take Player Winning Chances: 78.06% (G:1.42% B:0.02%) 78.06% (G:1.42% B:0.02%) Opponent Winning Chances: 21.94% (G:1.85% B:0.05%) 21.94% (G:1.85% B:0.05%) Cubeless Equities +0.557 +1.113 Cubeful Equities No redouble: +0.521 (-0.479) ±0.003 (+0.518..+0.524) Redouble/Take: +1.042 (+0.042) ±0.007 (+1.035..+1.049) Redouble/Pass: +1.000 Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 3 minutes 52 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 94Unlimited Game pip: 84
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=---BBCCCB----a---bcccc----:1:-1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in 2-ply No redouble Redouble/Take Player Winning Chances: 77.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Opponent Winning Chances: 22.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Cubeless Equities +0.551 +1.101 Cubeful Equities No redouble: +0.477 (-0.477) Redouble/Take: +0.954 Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.046) Best Cube action: Redouble / Take eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 94Unlimited Game pip: 84
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=---BBCCCB----a---bcccc----:1:-1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take Player Winning Chances: 77.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 77.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Opponent Winning Chances: 22.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 22.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Cubeless Equities +0.549 +1.098 Cubeful Equities No redouble: +0.479 (-0.479) ±0.002 (+0.477..+0.481) Redouble/Take: +0.958 ±0.004 (+0.954..+0.961) Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.042) Best Cube action: Redouble / Take Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 1 minute 12 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
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