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PART 1: HG vs Race cube efficiency near take point

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Friday, 6 June 2014, at 5:11 p.m.

In Response To: Live Cube TP (Gammonless / Match) (Timothy Chow)

Here are some positions that help.

First is a holding game down in the race that would be a borderline pass. We should expect that cube efficiency is very low since most wins come from a crushing hit. The RO does indeed show that but lower levels show XG does not use this concept.

Results are shown for 2-ply, XG ++, and RO. The difference between cubeless and cubeful equity for the RO is .036 and it shows a pass with DT equity of 1.042. The difference from XG++ is .046 and it shows a pass with 1.026 DT. If 2-ply is used the cubeless equity of .552 is essentially correct but instead the difference between cubeless and cubeful is .081. XG on 2 ply mistakenly thinks it is a solid .941 take due to drastically overestimating the cube power.

What follows is a race where 2-ply thinks the cubeless equity is .551. The difference between cubeless and cubeful is .074 and 2 - ply thinks it is a .954 take. The RO shows very close results.

Summarizing 2 ply does a great job at getting the win percentages correct for both the race and the holding game position. It does a great job at factoring cube power for the race and 2 - ply gives a very good value for the take equity and does a poor job at factoring in cube power for the holding game position (seemingly treating it just like a race?) and gets the take equity wrong by about .101.

This already shows that trying to emulate OTB what XG does may not be the best goal.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 117
Unlimited Game
pip: 86
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BABBbBBB----Ba--bbbbbb---:1:-1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in 2-ply No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:77.06% (G:2.40% B:0.01%)
Opponent Winning Chances:22.94% (G:1.29% B:0.08%)
Cubeless Equities +0.552 +1.103
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.471 (-0.471)
Redouble/Take:+0.941
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.059)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 117
Unlimited Game
pip: 86
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BABBbBBB----Ba--bbbbbb---:1:-1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77.86% (G:1.73% B:0.02%) 77.86% (G:1.73% B:0.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.14% (G:1.57% B:0.04%) 22.14% (G:1.57% B:0.04%)
Cubeless Equities +0.559 +1.117
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.513 (-0.487)
Redouble/Take:+1.026 (+0.026)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 117
Unlimited Game
pip: 86
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BABBbBBB----Ba--bbbbbb---:1:-1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.06% (G:1.42% B:0.02%) 78.06% (G:1.42% B:0.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.94% (G:1.85% B:0.05%) 21.94% (G:1.85% B:0.05%)
Cubeless Equities +0.557 +1.113
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.521 (-0.479)±0.003 (+0.518..+0.524)
Redouble/Take:+1.042 (+0.042)±0.007 (+1.035..+1.049)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 52 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 94
Unlimited Game
pip: 84
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BBCCCB----a---bcccc----:1:-1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in 2-ply No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:77.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:22.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.551 +1.101
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.477 (-0.477)
Redouble/Take:+0.954
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.046)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 94
Unlimited Game
pip: 84
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BBCCCB----a---bcccc----:1:-1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 77.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 22.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.549 +1.098
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.479 (-0.479)±0.002 (+0.477..+0.481)
Redouble/Take:+0.958±0.004 (+0.954..+0.961)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.042)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 12 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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