If one has a holding game in which the race is close one's chances are likely better than one in which the race is not close. This by itself can make the cube power higher.
To answer the question "does a holding game with close race have a normal cube power?" a good comparison is to a race with the same cubeless chances. If we look at a HG with a board or prime ready some variations give a hit that loses market drastically while other variations become a race with a usual race cube power. One should thus expect lower cube power than a straight race though not as drastic a difference as was seen comparing a holding game down in the race to a race.
Our first position is a holding game with a close race and a board ready. RO shows a .131 difference between cubeless and cubeful equities and a .106 take. XG++ gives a .137 difference and a .099 take. 2 - ply gives a .143 difference and a +.057 take. (Note that black was on roll)
2-ply cubeless equity was only .01 off from RO but the take equity was off by .049. As in the previous post XG 2 - ply is giving more cube power than it should. The difference is not as drastic though.
Like we did in the previous post let's compare to a race with a similar cubeless equity. The 2 ply gives a cubeful and cubeless equity difference of .133 This is close to the RO difference of .144
Here we see that XG 2 - ply gives too little cube power to the race and too little to the holding game. Also the holding game's cube power is .131 compared to .144 for the race. Perhaps close enough to call it normal. Still we can see big enough errors to worry about. For the race 2-ply cubeless estimate is only .001 off but the take is off by .024 in direction of shorting white. In the HG the take is off by .049 in the direction of favoring white. Part of the is explained by the 2 ply cubeless evaluation being .01 off favoring white but like before we see an error due to too much cube power being given.
        
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 96 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 97
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---BBCCbC----B----bcbbbb--:1:-1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 59.22% (G:0.95% B:0.03%) | 59.22% (G:0.95% B:0.03%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 40.78% (G:1.01% B:0.03%) | 40.78% (G:1.01% B:0.03%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.184 | +0.368 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.053 (-0.053) | ±0.005 (+0.048..+0.058) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.106 | ±0.009 (+0.097..+0.115) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.894) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 1 minute 15 seconds |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 96 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 97
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---BBCCbC----B----bcbbbb--:1:-1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 59.29% (G:1.02% B:0.02%) | 59.29% (G:1.02% B:0.02%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 40.71% (G:0.97% B:0.02%) | 40.71% (G:0.97% B:0.02%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.186 | +0.372 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.049 (-0.049) | |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.099 | |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.901) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 96 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 97
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---BBCCbC----B----bcbbbb--:1:-1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in 2-ply | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 58.75% (G:1.11% B:0.01%) | |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 41.25% (G:1.19% B:0.01%) | |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.174 | +0.348 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.029 (-0.029) | |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.057 | |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.943) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 90 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 90
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----CCCCC--------ccccc----:1:-1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in 2-ply | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 58.90% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 41.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.178 | +0.356 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.045 (-0.045) | |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.090 | |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.910) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 90 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 90
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----CCCCC--------ccccc----:1:-1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 58.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 58.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 41.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 41.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.177 | +0.354 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.033 (-0.033) | ±0.002 (+0.031..+0.035) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.066 | ±0.005 (+0.061..+0.071) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.934) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 1 minute 17 seconds |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10