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Chess, Cheating, Psychology, Analogy

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 18 June 2014, at 1:28 p.m.

In Response To: Chess, Cheating, Psychology, Analogy (Havard Raddum)

Havard Raddum wrote:

There is no random element in chess, so it's a bit fuzzy with the probabilities. How did the program know that there was a 5% probability that black would mess up and make an error losing the game?

The first thing to remember is that chess engines are much further away from "perfect play" than backgammon bots are. The probabilities are best interpreted not as probabilities that a human player will mess up, but as uncertainty on the computer's part about its evaluation of the position. For example, if the computer sees a forced mate in 20, you'll see its analysis crystallize from probabilities into certainties, even though a human player could very well fail to execute the mate in 20 perfectly.

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