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BGonline.org Forums
related question-more specific to backgammon
Posted By: phil simborg In Response To: related question- (Fatboy)
Date: Wednesday, 18 June 2014, at 1:48 p.m.
I have no data to back this up, but my experience has been that most players, when in a position that is clearly superior to their opponent, and offered to play a roll with many possibilities (double 2 for example), are likely to see all the candidate plays and generally can narrow it down to the two best, often making the best play.
At the same time, when in an inferior position, where the potential gain from any play seems relatively small and the winning chances seem poor no matter what play is selected, the best plays are often not even considered as candidates and there are much more likely to be errors.
Put another way, it is easier for humans to find the best play out of several good alternatives than to find the least worst play from several alternatives that all look bad. As we know, whether your equity is 80 percent or 20 percent, making a .100 blunder hurts you just as much in the long run in either case and is just as important to avoid in either case.
Is this because of something we can write off to "human nature" or is there a more specific and direct reason for this difference (assuming, of course, that my observation is correct)?
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