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64S-22E-44

Posted By: Maik Stiebler
Date: Friday, 29 August 2014, at 2:12 p.m.

In Response To: 64S-22E-44 (David Presser)

I wondered why truncated rollouts / XGR++ differ from full rollouts by so much. I think the key is the evaluation of the running play after the opponent misses, e.g. with a 61. The full rollout in the left diagram differs from the truncated one in the right diagram by more than 0.060.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 141
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 159
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=---b--E-CB--eCA-Ac-c-b----:0:0:-1:61:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout113/7 8/7eq: -0.551
Player:
Opponent:		34.63% (G:5.21% B:0.15%)
65.37% (G:4.69% B:0.17%)		Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.563...-0.539)
Duration: 9 minutes 22 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 68613879
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10




White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 141
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 159
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=---b--E-CB--eCA-Ac-c-b----:0:0:-1:61:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout113/7 8/7eq: -0.487
Player:
Opponent:		34.86% (G:4.76% B:0.12%)
65.14% (G:4.80% B:0.13%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.490...-0.483)
Duration: 1 minute 32 seconds
1 Truncated at 4 moves using 3-ply.
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 68613835
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

However, in the following cubeless rollouts, full and truncated agree. So I guess XG either underestimates the amount of cube vig against the holding game, or it misplays the cube for the holding game player in the full rollout.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 141
Unlimited Game
pip: 159
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=---b--E-CB--eCA-Ac-c-b----:0:0:-1:61:0:0:0:0:0
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout113/7 8/7eq: -0.308
Player:
Opponent:		34.49% (G:5.25% B:0.15%)
65.51% (G:5.01% B:0.19%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.313...-0.303)
Duration: 9 minutes 43 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 68613838
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10




White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 141
Unlimited Game
pip: 159
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=---b--E-CB--eCA-Ac-c-b----:0:0:-1:61:0:0:0:0:0
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout113/7 8/7eq: -0.306
Player:
Opponent:		34.73% (G:4.66% B:0.12%)
65.27% (G:4.68% B:0.12%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.307...-0.305)
Duration: 1 minute 07 seconds
1 Truncated at 4 moves using 3-ply.
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 68613832
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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