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Of Thumbs and their Rules.

Posted By: David Rennie
Date: Saturday, 4 July 2015, at 5:39 a.m.

In Response To: We blew this in our doubles match (Bob Koca)

Are you familiar with the concept of the rule of thumb? A broadly accurate principle but not intended to be strictly accurate or reliable in every situation. You came up with AN instance of it being wrong(and I get a considerably smaller 0.41 size take, not a 0.96 size one). The Keith Count is obviously very useful but there are certain types of positions (gaps and a very high stack on the 2 or 3-point for instance) where it can be misleading. Experience teaches you what to look out for there, but discovering its inaccuracy in a particular type of position doesn't negate its general usefulness. The position you came up with is worth noting as a type that one needs to be wary about. When you can demonstrate a statistically significant percentage of instances (and I don't know what the rule of thumb is for the percentage of false instances for a rule of thumb to not be a rule of thumb but I bet it's not that small) then we can start using the term "obviously very bad". You can even add a little fucking smiley face if you want. Personally, if I'm on a clock, I find it very useful as the doubler to feel virtually 100% confident that if I'm in a 3 checker vs. 3 checker situation and I have 12 pips or less I have a double for money. The fact that the position 000300 has exceptions to that, depending on the pip count of the taker, doesn't lessen it's usefulness in virtually every other scenario. The position for the taker is a little trickier if the pipcount is even at 11 or 12, but as a rule of thumb, it's not bad. Whether or not it should have been applied in Phil's instance, or whether, even if it should, it was applied properly by me in my example, is a whole different ballgame and, as I said, there's a good chance I bollocksed it up. It would not be an obviously very bad rule of thumb to assume that I did.

Messages In This Thread

• We blew this in our doubles match
  phil simborg -- Friday, 3 July 2015, at 5:47 a.m.
  • We blew this in our doubles match
    Alex Schofield -- Friday, 3 July 2015, at 6:10 a.m.
  • We blew this in our doubles match
    David Rennie -- Friday, 3 July 2015, at 6:36 a.m.
    • We blew this in our doubles match
      Stick -- Friday, 3 July 2015, at 7:35 a.m.
      • We blew this in our doubles match
        David Rennie -- Friday, 3 July 2015, at 11:39 a.m.
        • We blew this in our doubles match
          hominid -- Friday, 3 July 2015, at 12:20 p.m.
    • We blew this in our doubles match
      Ray Kershaw -- Friday, 3 July 2015, at 9:27 a.m.
      • We blew this in our doubles match
        David Rennie -- Friday, 3 July 2015, at 11:24 a.m.
        • We blew this in our doubles match
          Bob Koca -- Friday, 3 July 2015, at 11:02 p.m.
          • Of Thumbs and their Rules.
            David Rennie -- Saturday, 4 July 2015, at 5:39 a.m.
            • Of Thumbs and their Rules.
              Stick -- Saturday, 4 July 2015, at 6:50 a.m.
            • Of proper use of words
              Bob Koca -- Saturday, 4 July 2015, at 1:40 p.m.
              • Of proper use of words
                David Rennie -- Saturday, 4 July 2015, at 2:46 p.m.
                • Of proper use of words
                  Bob Koca -- Saturday, 4 July 2015, at 5:20 p.m.
                  • Of proper use of words
                    David Rennie -- Saturday, 4 July 2015, at 7:55 p.m.
    • We blew this in our doubles match
      Bob Koca -- Friday, 3 July 2015, at 11:07 p.m.
  • Here is the problem....
    phil simborg -- Friday, 3 July 2015, at 12:28 p.m.
    • Here is the problem....
      David Rennie -- Friday, 3 July 2015, at 1:41 p.m.
      • Here is the problem....
        phil simborg -- Friday, 3 July 2015, at 2:15 p.m.
    • Here is the problem....
      neilkaz -- Friday, 3 July 2015, at 5:05 p.m.
  • We blew this in our doubles match
    John O'Hagan -- Friday, 3 July 2015, at 2:08 p.m.