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Listen to XG or not?

Posted By: Mislav Kovacic
Date: Tuesday, 27 October 2015, at 7:11 p.m.

In Response To: Listen to XG or not? (Timothy Chow)

Jac100 gives such a big pass that he would have to blunder a LOT in this position to make it a take. Will he blunder a lot? Impossible to know, but I would say it's not likely. And again, I don't expect him to play it out perfectly, but I certainly don't expect him to blunder that much to change the 1.154 evaluation into a take. Just my opinion, of course.

I agree that modeling human mistakes would be the logical starting point to go about solving problems like these. If we had enough data, we might be able to predict fairly accurately (100% was obviously exaggeration) how likely he is to blunder from a certain score and what my expected MWC gain is, if I am indeed a 3 PR (or whatever) favorite.

We are obviously far away from this happening any time soon (as far as I know), so I was just wondering if there is a way to use Jac100 + some common sense for positions like these to get a more accurate evaluation than the one provided by XG. I know Stick is a fan of Jacobs fish METs and I remember some of his very instructive discussions on that topic (from Daily Recaps I think), so would be cool to hear his opinion on this one.

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