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Listen to XG or not?

Posted By: Mislav Kovacic
Date: Tuesday, 27 October 2015, at 1:03 a.m.

1) You are Blue, your opponent is White and on roll.
2) Score is 2a-5a.
3) You are at least 3 PR stronger than your opponent.

What do you do when doubled by the weaker opponent (White)?





White is Opponent

score: 8
pip: 111
13 point match
pip: 109
score: 11

Blue is Player
XGID=-B-B-BCB-A--bB--bbcd--b-A-:0:0:-1:00:11:8:0:13:10
White on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


Theoretically, it's an easy take:
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73,09% (G:5,91% B:0,11%) 73,09% (G:6,50% B:0,11%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26,91% (G:2,75% B:0,04%) 26,91% (G:3,08% B:0,05%)
Cubeless Equities +0,460 +0,767
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,752 (-0,015)
Double/Take:+0,767
Double/Pass:+1,000 (+0,233)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2



Of course, XG assumes opponents of equal strength. How about using a jac100 MET which assumes 100 ELO points difference (≈3 PR difference)? I put it in Gnu and the analysis is as follows:



MONSTER pass!

So what is it then? Big take or big pass? :)
And should I trust jac100 MET in this particular position? I assumed the opponent's position was relatively easy to play and that he won't make any significant checker mistakes.

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