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Listen to XG or not?

Posted By: Phil Simborg
Date: Tuesday, 27 October 2015, at 8:36 p.m.

In Response To: Listen to XG or not? (Mislav Kovacic)

I think there is a big difference between passing and allowing your opponent to get to 4away/2away than passing at other scores where you don't let your opponent get to such a delicious score that gives him such efficient cube vig.

It's also a big difference in giving away a point when there are many points to go in a match and just a few.

And there's also a big difference when the 3 PR is between 3 and 6 or between 6 and 9. In the first case, it is less likely that the 6PR player will make huge cube and checker errors for the rest of the match from 2away/4away down, but a 9PR player will make many more errors, so even though the difference it still 3 PR the liklihood of being able to gain something at these particular scores, I believe is higher.

I doubt that bot developers are going to spend a lot of time and work on this, because the incremental value of the software to the small number of people who would use and appreciate this value is too low. The developers will do far better making the program easier to use for your average or lower level players, and given higher level players better tools for the types of evaluations we use more often.

I am not saying it isn't an excellent mental exercise or that we shouldn't be taking PR differences into account, and one of the reasons Mochy and I are doing our challenges is to try to get some statistical value of the difference of starting with the cube vs. a difference in PR...it's interesting and fun to do as well as a learning experience. But I'm not sure we will ever get much of a handle on dealing with PR differences and applying it over the board other than some general concepts and directions and the rest is guess work. The hardest thing to predict is what kind of mistakes and when a poorer opponent will make them (and factor in our own errors as well).

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