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Wisebeaver Paradox

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 22 June 2017, at 5:07 a.m.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 81
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 165
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---a-BCBBAA--------ecbDbb-:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:10

Wisebeaver Paradox


1.Rollout122/18 22/17eq: +0.049
Player:
Opponent:		52.54% (G:7.96% B:0.25%)
47.46% (G:34.41% B:0.96%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.045...+0.054) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
2.Rollout122/17 9/5eq: +0.040 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		49.86% (G:7.54% B:0.24%)
50.14% (G:24.88% B:0.30%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.038...+0.043) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 34 seconds
1 24624 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41086525
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


According to Ray Kershaw, a cube provocation play is "a correct checker play after which your opponent should double or redouble, when you have at least one wrong checker play after which your opponent should not double or redouble." It seems to me that others term such a situation a "Wisecarver Paradox" (after Tim Wisecarver, I presume). Did I read that right?

I've only skimmed threads, but all the Wisecarver paradoxes I've seen referenced on this site have been NON-contact.

Starting somewhat arbitrarily from a (contact) diagram vsn recently posted, I experimented with changes and found some positions that are (contact) Wisecarver Paradoxes. Then I stumbled upon the position above, which is that... and more.

According to the (side-by-side) rollouts below, Blue's superior play evokes double/beaver, whereas his inferior play evokes no-double/beaver. For this subset of Wisecarver paradoxes, I'm coining the term "Wisebeaver Paradox."

Previously, has anyone seen a Wisebeaver Paradox, or (more likely) seen a a Wisecarver Paradox with contact?

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 81
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 156
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---a-BCBBAA------AAecbBbb-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10

White on roll: Double / Beaver


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 47.17% (G:34.69% B:1.08%) 47.45% (G:34.41% B:0.96%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 52.83% (G:7.66% B:0.23%) 52.55% (G:7.85% B:0.26%)
Cubeless Equities +0.222 +0.443
Cubeful Equities
No double:-0.142 (-0.053)±0.007 (-0.150..-0.135)
Double/Beaver:-0.089±0.029 (-0.118..-0.061)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+1.089)
Best Cube action: Double / Beaver
Rollout details
3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 95623456
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Beaver Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 25 minutes 00 second
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 81
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 156
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---a-CCBB-A------A-ecbCbb-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10

White on roll: No double / Beaver


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 50.04% (G:24.87% B:0.30%) 50.01% (G:24.37% B:0.31%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 49.96% (G:7.47% B:0.24%) 49.99% (G:7.80% B:0.25%)
Cubeless Equities +0.175 +0.333
Cubeful Equities
No double:-0.035±0.010 (-0.045..-0.025)
Double/Beaver:-0.255 (-0.220)±0.037 (-0.292..-0.218)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+1.035)
Best Cube action: No double / Beaver
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 14.9%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 95623456
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 7 minutes 59 seconds

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