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Previous contact cube provocation plays at BGO.

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 23 June 2017, at 2:32 a.m.

In Response To: Previous contact cube provocation plays at BGO. (Bob Koca)

Nicely done.

I had read your first and third reply from the Wisecarver Paradox thread, but had failed to notice your second reply.

A Wisecarver Paradox also appears to exist with one checker off when Blue's 3pt, 4pt or 5pt is open, or two checkers off when Blue's 3pt is open. With one off and 6pt open, and with two off and 2pt open, we have the near misses or TCTC implied below.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 51
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 123
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBBBB------aA--A--AAak-aA:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

Blue on roll: No Redouble? (hence no Wisecarver)


Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68.97% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 69.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.03% (G:10.63% B:0.18%) 30.08% (G:10.53% B:0.15%)
Cubeless Equities +0.271 +0.583
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.440±0.002 (+0.438..+0.441)
Redouble/Take:+0.439 (-0.001)±0.006 (+0.432..+0.445)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.560)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 0.2%
Rollout details
20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41086525
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:60.6%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 10 minutes 55 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 48
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 130
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-BBBB------A-aA--AAbj-A-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

Blue on roll: Small Redouble (hence no Wisecarver)


Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 77.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.66% (G:6.49% B:0.29%) 22.86% (G:6.16% B:0.25%)
Cubeless Equities +0.439 +0.957
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.790 (-0.006)±0.002 (+0.789..+0.792)
Redouble/Take:+0.797±0.003 (+0.793..+0.800)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.203)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 95623456
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99.9%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 15 minutes 36 seconds

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