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A small adjustment

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Friday, 23 June 2017, at 12:08 a.m.

In Response To: Not quite (Nack Ballard)

Shifting 2 point to ace point makes it a cube provocation position:

After the clearing play it is not quite a double and you have equity of -.563.

After the correct play of 13/7 it is a double even though your equity of -.277 is much better than the alternate play.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 109
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 113
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-ABBbD------bF----abbbb-b-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.49% (G:17.15% B:0.09%) 62.74% (G:18.79% B:0.12%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.51% (G:2.30% B:0.06%) 37.26% (G:2.55% B:0.08%)
Cubeless Equities +0.399 +0.835
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.563±0.012 (+0.551..+0.574)
Double/Take:+0.535 (-0.028)±0.015 (+0.520..+0.550)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.437)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 5.6%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99.8%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 04 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 109
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 113
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=--BBbCBA----bE----abbbb-b-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 58.15% (G:16.65% B:0.10%) 58.34% (G:17.20% B:0.16%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 41.85% (G:3.64% B:0.12%) 41.66% (G:3.85% B:0.13%)
Cubeless Equities +0.293 +0.601
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.251 (-0.025)±0.008 (+0.243..+0.260)
Double/Take:+0.277±0.013 (+0.264..+0.290)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.723)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99.9%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 05 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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