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Previous contact cube provocation plays at BGO.

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 22 June 2017, at 2:59 p.m.

In Response To: Previous contact cube provocation plays at BGO. (Bob Koca)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 132
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 41
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-EBaa--a--a-----Abbbbb--:1:-1:1:53:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 53


I'm puzzled by your first example (copied above). It's a great position, and cube efficiency is relevant, but how would it classify as a cube provocation play?

Your second example is excellent. In case it wasn't rolled out before, I did so below.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 127
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b--BBC-A-A-cD-----bbbbbB-:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10

31P-31P-42P-55P-21D-44A-65


1.Rollout113/8 13/7eq: -0.362
Player:
Opponent:		42.65% (G:10.09% B:0.52%)
57.35% (G:27.71% B:3.83%)		Conf.: ± 0.019 (-0.381...-0.343) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 25 seconds
2.Rollout113/8 10/4eq: -0.421 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:		40.37% (G:12.08% B:0.55%)
59.63% (G:21.38% B:1.86%)		Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.438...-0.405) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 05 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 95623456
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 127
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 143
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b--BBCAB-A-cB-----bbbbbB-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10

31P-31P-42P-55P-21D-44A-65D-C


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 57.66% (G:27.15% B:3.44%) 57.30% (G:27.60% B:3.73%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 42.34% (G:10.10% B:0.51%) 42.70% (G:10.04% B:0.51%)
Cubeless Equities +0.353 +0.708
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.320 (-0.035)±0.009 (+0.311..+0.329)
Double/Take:+0.355±0.014 (+0.341..+0.368)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.645)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 95623456
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 18 minutes 15 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 127
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 143
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b--CBC-B---cC-----bbbbbB-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10

31P-31P-42P-55P-21D-44A-65O-C


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 59.89% (G:21.37% B:1.72%) 59.86% (G:21.48% B:1.74%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40.11% (G:11.92% B:0.51%) 40.14% (G:12.07% B:0.50%)
Cubeless Equities +0.304 +0.607
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.418±0.015 (+0.403..+0.432)
Double/Take:+0.309 (-0.109)±0.019 (+0.289..+0.328)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.582)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.6%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41086525
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 6 minutes 13 seconds

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